E76. AI 超级周期经济学(一)：我们现在在什么位置，将去哪里？

Day1Global生而全球 · e76 · 138 segments · clipped to 300s

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Co-host of Day1Global podcast, 10+ years as a product manager witnessing the rapid development of the internet, now exploring how to build a global superindividual through Web3 and AI.
spk_2co-hostguess 0.99
Co-host and producer of Day1Global podcast, 10+ years in internet operations, previously worked at Amazon, Alibaba, and Ant Group.
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Co-host of Day1Global podcast, 10+ years as a product manager witnessing the rapid development of the internet, now exploring how to build a global superindividual through Web3 and AI.

Segments

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接下来你们毕业的时候
By the time you graduate,
#001spk_000:02 – 00:05approved
你们一半人会去做投资
half of you will go into investing,
#002spk_000:05 – 00:07approved
一半人会去做AI方面的创业
and the other half will go start AI companies.
#003spk_000:07 – 00:09approved
然后你们学长在斯坦福
And your seniors here at Stanford
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要搞清楚
need to figure out
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这一半人如何去投给
how that investing half
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你的另外一半的同学
can back the startup half.
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你看了这张图就知道
Look at this chart and you'll understand
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为什么每次黄仁勋演讲
why Jensen Huang is always
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都是笑那么开心
grinning ear to ear every time he takes the stage.
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不管谁花钱
No matter who's spending the money,
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最后大头都落在他手袋里
the lion's share ends up in his pocket.
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短期缺芯片
Short-term, there's a chip shortage.
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长期缺能源
Long-term, there's an energy shortage.
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永远缺存储
And storage? That's always in short supply.
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在这个产业里面
When you're looking at this industry
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怎么去选定哪一个公司
and trying to pick which companies to focus on,
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自己觉得重点关注的
there are a few things to ask.
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第一它到底在未来会长多大
First — how big can this company actually get?
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第二在这个产业里面
Second — within this industry,
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它的获取利润能力到底有多强
how strong is its ability to capture profit?
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第三就是说
And third —
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它在这产业里面
how indispensable is it
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不可或缺性有多强
to the whole ecosystem?
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光刻机只有阿斯麦
For lithography machines, there's only ASML.
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高精尖的生产组装
For cutting-edge chip fabrication,
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只有台积电
there's only TSMC.
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GPU现在只有英伟达
For GPUs right now, there's only NVIDIA.
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存储只有海力士三星美光
For memory, it's SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron.
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大家好
Hey everyone.
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欢迎收听Day One Global生而全球
Welcome to Day One Global — _生而全球_.
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我是Ruby
I'm Ruby.
#032spk_201:01 – 01:03approved
一名立志成为生活博主的
A former big-tech operations veteran
#033spk_201:03 – 01:06approved
互联网大厂退役运营
who dreams of becoming a lifestyle content creator.
#034spk_201:06 – 01:08approved
现在专注招呼Day One Global茶水间的
These days I'm focused on looking after
#035spk_201:08 – 01:10approved
各位尊贵会员
all our valued members in the Day One Global community.
#036spk_201:10 – 01:12approved
感兴趣的朋友可以在show notes里
If you're interested in joining, you can find the details
#037spk_201:12 – 01:13approved
找到加入方式
in the show notes.
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我是Star
And I'm Star.
#039spk_301:14 – 01:17approved
一名见证了互联网高速发展的产品经理
A product manager who lived through the internet's explosive growth,
#040spk_301:17 – 01:20approved
现在在实践如何通过web3和AI
and now I'm exploring how to use Web3 and AI
#041spk_301:20 – 01:23approved
打造全球化时代的超级个体
to build what I call a "super individual" for the global age.
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本节目旨在分享最新的信息和认知
This show is about sharing the latest information and ideas.
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其中谈论到任何代币与项目的
Anything we mention about tokens or projects
#044spk_301:28 – 01:30approved
与项目均不构成投资建议
does not constitute investment advice.
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如果我们的节目对你有所启发
If our show has sparked something for you,
#046spk_201:32 – 01:35approved
欢迎多多分享给身边的朋友
please share it with the people around you.
#047spk_201:35 – 01:37approved
让Day One Global可以被更多人听见
Help more people discover Day One Global.
#048spk_201:37 – 01:39approved
以下正式开始本期精彩内容
Alright — let's get into today's episode.
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然后这一期我们来聊一个
So this episode, we're diving into
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当下非常火热的话题
one of the hottest topics right now:
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AI超级周期经济学
the economics of the AI super-cycle.
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对然后聊这个话题
And when we talk about this,
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就第一
the first thing to establish is
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就肯定我们现在是进入了一个
that yes, we are in
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AI的超级周期
an AI super-cycle.
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然后第二就是
And the second thing is —
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肯定很多人也会像我
a lot of people probably feel the same way I did
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比如说几个月前的疑惑一样
a few months ago:
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就觉得AI发展速度太快了
AI is moving so fast it's hard to keep up.
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每天都跟不上
Every single day you can't keep up.
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但是整个全貌是什么样子的
But what does the whole picture actually look like?
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如果你要去学习去做投资
If you want to study this space or invest in it,
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应该如何开始呢
where do you even start?
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然后刚好呢
Well, as it turns out,
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就是我们在斯坦福的官网上发现了
we came across something on Stanford's official website —
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他们竟然开了一门课
they actually launched a course
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是开的管理科学与工程系的
in the Department of Management Science and Engineering,
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然后就叫做AI超级周期经济学
and it's called "Economics of the AI Super-Cycle."
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啊他这个课就叫这个名字
Wait, that's literally the name of the course?
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他是斯坦福工程学院下面的
Yeah, it's under Stanford's School of Engineering,
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管理科学与工程系
in the Management Science and Engineering department.
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然后他的讲师
And the instructors,
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跟guest speaker
along with the guest speakers,
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就是客座演讲者都非常的牛啊
are seriously impressive.
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可以认为是现在这个产业里面
You could say they're among the sharpest minds
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最前最尖端的一帮人
at the very cutting edge of this industry right now.
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他的那个老师是
The lead instructor is a partner at
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Altimeter Capital的合伙人
Altimeter Capital —
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叫April
her name is April.
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Altimeter Capital其实是非常有名啊
Altimeter Capital is a pretty well-known firm —
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大家感兴趣可以搜一下
worth looking up if you're curious.
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然后他们是英伟达的大股东
They're a major shareholder in NVIDIA,
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然后也是OpenAI的
and also investors in OpenAI
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Anthropic的股东
and Anthropic.
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对他的创始人就是这个
Right, and the founder of Altimeter is
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Brad Gerstner
Brad Gerstner —
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也是非常有名
also very well known.
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而且他影响力很大
He has a huge amount of influence in the industry.
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然后去年和前年的时候
And over the past couple of years —
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跟Bill Gurley一起做的那个播客是BG2
He does a podcast called BG2 with Bill Gurley —
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然后他也出现在那个all in的播客上面
and he's also appeared on the All-In podcast.
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然后去年他有一段视频特别火啊
There was this video of his that went massively viral last year —
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就他们邀请了那个
where they had invited
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微软的CEO
Microsoft's CEO
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Satya
Satya —
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他们邀请了微软的CEO Satya
so they had Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella on,
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然后同时也是OpenAI的CEO Sam Altman
and at the same time, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman.
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就一起来上这个播客
Both of them on the podcast together.
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然后一般来说这种上播客是非常和和气气的啊
Now, normally this kind of podcast appearance is very friendly and collegial —
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因为大家都是OpenAI的股东嘛
because everyone there is an OpenAI shareholder, right?
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然后没想到这个Brad Gerstner
But nobody expected Brad Gerstner to just
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就直接问Sam Altman说你这个开支这么大
go straight at Sam Altman — "your spending is enormous,
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1.5万亿美金
a one-and-a-half trillion dollar valuation,
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你的收入就当时还100亿美金左右吧
and your revenue at the time was only around ten billion —
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说你到底怎么填补这个开支呢
how on earth are you going to cover that gap?"
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然后没想到这Sam Altman的回答就非常令人
And Sam Altman's answer was just completely
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就是大跌眼镜
jaw-dropping.
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Sam Altman没有去就是讲他的业务啊
Instead of talking about the business,
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就是说如果你不满意的话
Sam basically said, "if you're not happy with that,
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我们可以把你的股份买回来
we can buy your shares back."
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然后这个也被视为当时一个非常大的
And that moment was seen as a pretty significant symbol —
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是AI泡沫的一个符号
a symbol of the AI bubble.
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所以大家感兴趣可以去找一下
So if you're curious, definitely go look that up.
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刚刚讲的嘉宾其实就是说从我们现在的
Anyway, the guests we've been talking about really represent the whole stack — from
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就是英伟达到算力
NVIDIA and compute infrastructure,
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然后到OpenAI大模型
to OpenAI and the foundation models,
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然后Anthropic到一些那个数据库
to Anthropic, to databases and data platforms like
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Databricks
Databricks,
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然后应用层Cursor
and then at the application layer, tools like Cursor.
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然后还有就是这种Leo Cloud加能源
And then there's also the Leo Cloud plus energy layer.
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Curso非常的全
The course is really comprehensive.
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已经更新了
It's already been updated —
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就是四堂课
four lectures in total.
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然后我是看了前三堂
I've watched the first three,
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然后我自己根据我的理解
and based on my own understanding,
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就是把它整理了一下
I put together my own notes and summary.
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就如果你对就是斯坦福这门课特别感兴趣
If you're really interested in this Stanford course,
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你可以去他的官网
you can go to their official website
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然后去油管上收看
and watch it on YouTube.
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然后还有很多的就是补充材料可以看
There's also a ton of supplementary material to dig into.
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然后第一就是说为什么要关心AI经济学
So — the first big question the course tackles: why should we care about the economics of AI?
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大家从体感上都没感受到
Most people haven't felt it in their day-to-day lives yet.
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但是就是实际上他的全貌是什么样子的
But what does the full picture actually look like?
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我觉得就是从这堂课里面
I think this course
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他有非常多的分享
has a lot of really valuable insights on that.
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就第一就是说从微观上来看
The first point is: at the micro level,
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AI的确正在成为这个世界上最大的基础设施
AI is genuinely becoming the largest infrastructure buildout in the world right now.